Ryan McConnico - HD 134

Today’s featured Republican State Rep nominee who has the chance of replacing a Democrat in the 2022 general election - our last in the series of thirteen - is Ryan McConnico of Houston in Harris County in HD 134.
HD 134 consists primarily of the wealthy neighborhoods inside Loop 610 west of downtown Houston. It includes the totality of the wealthy enclave cities of Bellaire, West University Place, and Southside Place. It includes the toniest of all Houston neighborhoods, River Oaks as well as Southhampton, Upper Kirby, Braeswood, Timbergrove, Afton Oaks, Washington Avenue, a part of Montrose, and extends a bit outside the Loop to take in Meyerland. The district includes the Texas Medical Center, Rice University, and both Hermann and Memorial Parks.
The newly configured HD 134 is probably the longest of long shots this year with a D+10 history, making it one of the hardest districts to flip this year. If I had to describe the district’s voters, it would be college educated young people recently moved to Texas and upper middle class and wealthy college educated people who in the main are not native Texans. Years of leftist indoctrination in the universities has left its mark on this district.
But maybe, just maybe, rampant crime in Houston, inflation, baby food shortages, a border crisis, and the indoctrination of our children by sexual predators is beginning to sink in on even the college indoctrinated in HD 134.
Ryan McConnico is a young businessman whose career has been one supporting the offshore oil industry. He is married with two young children, but is actively involved in civic affairs in Houston, including the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo, the Houston Food Bank, etc. He is a graduate of Sam Houston State undergrad with an MBA from University of Texas.
Ryan McConnico is taking on a formidable one term Dem incumbent attorney named Ann Johnson, who flipped the seat blue in 2020 from long term RINO, Sarah Davis. Johnson is obsessively anti-gun and was probably the most vocal opponent on the House floor last session of almost every firearms freedom bill that eventually passed. She was ranked the 24th most liberal Democrat in the Texas House by Mark Jones of Rice University, putting her in the bottom 35% of the Dems. She has a powerful persona as one would expect from someone who is the daughter of power couple consisting of a state rep and a judge and who has prosecuted human traffickers in the Harris County District Attorney’s office.
Ryan McConnico emphasizes the following issues on his website:
· Crime & Public Safety
· Encourage Excellence in Education (including keeping political indoctrination out of classrooms)
· Infrastructure and Energy Independence
· Restoring Public Trust in our Democracy (by which he means election integrity and pushing back on Big Tech speech suppression)
You can donate and volunteer to help Ryan McConnico at: mcconnico.org .
Click here for the Ryan McConnico for State Rep campaign Facebook page.
1 reaction Share

Rob McCarthy - HD 47

Today’s featured Republican State Rep nominee who has the chance of replacing a Democrat in the 2022 general election is Rob McCarthy of Austin in HD 47.
HD 47 was significantly reconfigured during redistricting to cover a north-south strip of Travis County that runs down the near west of the county west of MoPAC. HD 47 includes a good swath of west Austin from north to south, most of Bee Cave, just a bit of east Lakeway, as well as the communities of Steiner Ranch, Hudson Bend, Lost Creek, and Barton Creek. Being in Travis County, HD 47 is one of the higher hurdles to climb for the GOP with a D+9 history.
Rob McCarthy is a native of Bakersfield, California and the holder of an undergrad and MBA from University of Southern California (USC). (I call Bakersfield the Odessa, Texas of California because it has an oil-based economy and has an arid climate.) As a young man he did a year fellowship in Sacramento for then California Assemblyman Kevin McCarthy (no relation). When Kevin McCarthy was elected to the U.S. House, Rob went with him, serving 5 years on his staff. As you probably know, Kevin McCarthy is now the Minority Leader of the U.S. House and the likely next Speaker of the U.S. House.
Rob McCarthy moved to Texas in 2016 when the company he works for that provides software to K-12 school districts to filter the Internet provided to schools moved its headquarters from California to Texas. Clearly, Rob is not a Californian who wants to California Texas. Rather, he wants to protect Texas from Californization. Rob is married to a Texas girl and they have one young daughter.
The Dem two-term incumbent in HD 47 is realtor Vikki Goodwin, flipping her seat blue in the Beto surge in 2018. Her campaign website says that she is for “sensible gun regulations” stating that she will file a bill to increase the age of ownership for rifles from 18 to 21. She also says that she supports “the right of asylum-seekers to come to Texas and be treated with dignity and respect,” making no mention of the border crises other than that.
Rob McCarthy’s issues section of his website focuses on property tax reduction, defense of law enforcement, border security, and reducing homelessness in Austin, among other things. Rob has a statement on the landing page which is a bit disconcerting from an RPT Legislative Priorities perspective. The page says, “Rob McCarthy does not play partisan political games. He is known for building bi-partisan support to improve education, access to health care and lower taxes.” This begs two questions. First, does he not understand the declaration of war on everything that Texans hold dear by the Democrats? Second, will he support a ban on Democrat chairs and how strong will he be in his commitment to other priorities of the RPT. I am sure, however, that he will support the RPT priorities more than Vikki Goodwin will.
You can donate and volunteer to help Rob McCarthy at: mccarthyfortexas.com
Click here for the Rob McCarthy for Texas campaign Facebook page.
1 reaction Share

Doc Guerra - HD 41

Today’s featured Republican State Rep nominee who has the chance of replacing a Democrat in the 2022 general election is John Robert “Doc” Guerra of Mission in Hidalgo County in the Rio Grande Valley (RGV) in HD 41.
HD 41 is centered in the heart of Hidalgo County. It consists mainly of northern McAllen with slivers of west Edinburg, east Mission, and east Palmhurst, and a few chunks of west Pharr. HD 41 is one of the more challenging districts to flip, but is still within striking distance in this potentially seismic year with a D+8 history.
Doc Guerra is an OB/GYN doctor. He was born and raised in the RGV, attending UT Pan American undergrad before attending medical school at University of North Texas. Dr. Guerra has gotten involved local politics, too, with service as Vice Chair of the Mission Planning & Zoning Committee.
Doc Guerra is taking on a longtime Dem incumbent (serving since 2013) by the same last name, Bobby Guerra. Bobby Guerra was ranked the tenth most conservative of the Democrats by Mark Jones of Rice University. (Of course, the most conservative Democrat is still more liberal than the most RINOcious of Republicans.) He is a 69 year old attorney and descendant of Tejanos who settled in Texas in the 1700’s. Bobby Guerra is a traditionalist and has a friendly manner. In other words, Doc John Robert Guerra has a formidable opponent in Bobby Guerra. Will the seismic red shift and hard work by Doc Guerra and others be enough?
Doc Guerra features three issues on his website: 1) protecting South Texas oil and gas industries; 2) Fight Biden’s inflation, and fully funding our police, first responders and emergency services. He sums up his approach with this: “Local Democrats that have been in power for decades have created a culture of corruption, mismanagement, and nepotism. Furthermore, their policies of government welfare and socialism have wrecked our economy and hurt hard working South Texas families."
One more topic of note in the HD 37 race is that the overlap between the dream team of three Hispanic Congressional nominees in South Texas who have flipped are working to flip the South Texas Congressional districts of Mayra Flores (CD 34), Monica De La Cruz (CD 15), and Cassy Garcia (CD 28). Mayra Flores has already won the old, pre-redistricted CD 34 in a special election, and is now the first Mexican-born woman U.S. Representative. HD 41 is mostly within CD 15 where Monica De La Cruz is the GOP nominee for Congress. There is an eastern chunk of the district that is in CD 34 where Mayra Flores is running for re-election. Doc Guerra’s Facebook page shows that he is doing events and block walking with both Congressional nominees.
You can donate and volunteer to help Doc Guerra at: votedrguerra.com
Click here for the Doc Guerra for State Representative District 41 campaign Facebook page.
1 reaction Share

Mike May - HD 135

Today’s featured Republican State Rep nominee who has the chance of replacing a Democrat in the 2022 general election is Mike May of Houston in Harris County in HD 135.

HD 135 is in west northwest Harris County, starting at 290 on the northeast and stretching westward and southwestward along 529, W. Little York Rd, Clay Rd, and bounded on the south by Morton Rd. It extends a bit west beyond the Grand Parkway round Clay Rd. The newly configured HD 135 has a D+9 history, making it one of the hardest districts to flip this year.
Mike May is owns an oil and gas exploration company and has worked looking for oil his entire career. He is a Texas Aggie Petroleum Engineer.
Mike May is taking on a two term Dem incumbent named Jon Rosenthal, who flipped the seat blue in the Beto surge of 2018. During the 2019 freshman session for Rosenthal, he was ranked the fifth most liberal in the Texas House by Mark Jones of Rice University. That slipped to 24th most liberal in 2021, still keeping in the bottom 40% of the Dems. Interestingly, Rosenthal is also an engineering who has worked in the oil & gas industry, graduating from the University of Texas with a Mechanical Engineering degree.
Mike May emphasizes three issues on Ballotpedia. They are:
· Parents Rights and School Choice (note: this is an RPT Legislative Priority)
· Gas prices
· Crime (as any Harris County Republican should)
You can donate and volunteer to help Mike May at: mayforstaterep.com .
Click here for the Mike May for Texas State Representative District 135 campaign Facebook page.
1 reaction Share

Katherine Parker - HD 74

Today’s featured Republican State Rep nominee who has the chance of replacing a Democrat in the 2022 general election is Katherine Parker of Alpine in HD 74.
HD 74 has to be the largest state rep district in Texas, stretching 480 miles from east El Paso County in the northwest all the way down to Eagle Pass in Maverick County. It includes 11 entire counties and the part of one. HD 74 includes more border (775 miles) with Mexico than any other Texas House District, too.
Eight of the counties in HD 74 are border counties, some that are the epicenter of the border invasion. They include Val Verde, Kinney, Maverick, Terrell, Brewster, Presidio, Hudspeth, and El Paso. The other counties are close to the border and heavily impacted, too: Jeff Davis, Culberson, and Reeves. HD 74 has a D+6 history, making it a realistic potential flip in 2022.
Katherine Parker and her husband own several businesses, including a cattle ranch in Brewster and Jeff David County. She has lived most of her life in three counties in the district, Brewster (Alpine), Jeff Davis (Fort Davis), and Presidio (Marfa), considering Marfa to be her hometown. She is a graduate of Sul Ross State University in Alpine.
Katherine Parker is taking on a one term Dem incumbent named Eddie Morales, Jr. Morales was admittedly a breath of fresh air when he took over in 2021 the seat from the infamous cocaine user, Poncho Nevarez. The very anti-gun macho man Nevarez had picked a fight with Matt Rinaldi on the House floor in 2019 and was the instigator of the Texas House panic buttons.
Eddie Morales, on the other hand, was ranked the sixth most conservative Texas House Democrat by Mark Jones of Rice University in 2021. Morales, a native of Eagle Pass, is an attorney practicing there who graduated from University of Texas undergrad and St. Mary’s Law School. Morales is also the owner of a tortilla factory and real estate investor. Morales sent a letter in May, 2022 to the governor, proposing a plan to give Texas IDs to illegals entering Texas, allowing them to work in Texas as long as they “don’t get in trouble above a Class C misdemeanor.”
Katherine Parker’s theme on her website is Truth and Freedom, saying, “These are forever intertwined in our history and will determine the victory of our future. Our founding fathers knew this when they established our foundation on the Constitution of the United States of America. Our future is bright – Truth and Freedom must ring loud and clear.” The issues she mentions on her website are:
· Education
· Jobs and Economy
· Securing our Border
· Property Taxes
· Right to Life
· 2nd Amendment
The text in her Securing the Border section of her website says: “Living on the southern border of Texas most of my life, I have seen first-hand the dangers of illegal crossings, human trafficking, and drugs. I believe there is more we can do to ensure the safety of not only our ranchers, but all the hardworking citizens in our towns and cities. We absolutely must secure our southern border. This position is one we all should agree on, and I will fight for the resources and funding necessary from the federal government to allow our hardworking border security agents to do just that.”
It is interesting to me that Katherine Parker lives in the center of the sprawling HD 74 and her opponent lives in the farthest southeast portion of the district. It is also interesting to note the contrast between Parker’s agricultural/ranching experience and her opponent’s law practice experience. (Both have business experience.)
You can donate and volunteer to help Kay Smith at: katherineparkerfortexas.com
Click here for the Katherine Parker for Texas Facebook page.
1 reaction Share

Allan Meagher - HD 105

Today’s featured Republican State Rep nominee who has the chance of replacing a Democrat in the 2022 general election is Allan Meagher of Irving in HD 105 in west Dallas County.
HD 105 is bounded on the west by the county line and in the north by 114. It goes no further east than Loop 12. The southern boundary is Hunter Ferrell Rd in the west and the Trinity River in the east. There is no other city in the district than Irving, although Irving spills over a bit outside HD 105 to the north and east. The Dem incumbent claims in one of her videos that Irving has a zip code that is the “most diverse” in the nation. HD 105 has a D+8 history, making it one of the more difficult flips in 2022, but election integrity efforts in Dallas County and a red surge make it possible.
Allan Meagher is a native of Irving and former at-large City Council member for Irving. Before serving on City Council, he served on Irving’s Planning and Zoning Commission. He is endorsed by the Irving Fire Fighters and Irving Police Association. He worked with his family’s movie theater business when young, but has worked for UPS for almost three decades, mostly in Operations Management. He serves on the Board of Directors for the Salvation Army and the Irving Heritage Society.
Allan Meagher is taking on a two term Dem incumbent that flipped the district blue in the Beto surge of 2018. Her name is Terry Meza. After serving as school teacher, Meza went to law school late in life, and has now been in practice 20 years. She got a lot a lot of play in the firearms freedom community because she pre-filed a bill last session that would have reduced the stand-your-ground doctrine for self-defense in Texas. The bill went nowhere. Texas Gun Owners of America has described her as a “rapid gun control activist.” Mark Jones of Rice University ranks the voting record of Meza in 2021 as liberal and solidly in the middle of the liberal pack of Texas House Democrats. Meza focuses on traditional Dem issues like “healthcare for all,” “investing in public education,” “fighting for working families,” and of course, “celebrating diversity.”
Allan Meagher lists his issues as:
· Property Taxes
· Funding Education
· Funding Public Safety
Meagher mentions on his home page that he is “confident that together we can advance Irving as a thriving power-house in the North Texas Region.”
You can donate and volunteer to help Allan Meagher at: allanfor105.com
Click here for the Allan Meagher For Texas campaign Facebook page.
1 reaction Share

Melisa Denis - HD 115

Today’s featured Republican State Rep nominee who has the chance of replacing a Democrat in the 2022 general election is Melisa Denis of Coppell in HD 115.
HD 115 covers the northwestern corner of Dallas County and includes the cities of Coppell, Carollton, Addison, northern Farmers Branch, Northlake, and a bit of northern Irving. After redistricting, HD 115 is only D+5, making it theoretically one of the easiest current Dem districts to flip.
Melisa Denis had a 30 year career with KPMG, one of America’s most prestigious accounting and consulting firms while raising three children with her husband. She ended up becoming a partner in that firm. A native of Texarkana and daughter of a mailman, she earned two degrees from the University of North Texas.
The Dem two-term incumbent in HD 115 is Julie Johnson, an attorney who is married to a woman and is the Treasurer of the LBTQ Caucus in the Texas House. Johnson swept current RPT Chair, Matt Rinaldi out of his seat in the 2018 Beto surge. This may be the year when a counter surge takes the seat back for the GOP.
Melisa Denis focuses on supporting the Texas economy – especially oil and gas – from the green federal onslaught, on substantive property tax reduction, on the border, and on life. She talks about supporting public education and does not address school choice, so I don’t know where she stands on that RPT priority. I also do not know where she stands on banning Democrat chairs, stopping the sexualization of our children, or stopping gender modification of children. I am sure she will support the RPT priorities more than Julie Johnson will.
You can donate and volunteer to help Melisa Denis at: melisadenis.com 
Click here for the Melisa Denis campaign Facebook page.
1 reaction Share

Kay Smith - HD 148

Today’s featured Republican State Rep nominee who has the chance of replacing a Democrat in the 2022 general election is Kay Smith of Houston in Harris County in HD 148.
HD 148 is in near northwest Harris County, starting at Loop 610 and running northwest along both sides of 290 up to the Sam Houston tollway. It snakes north up to 249 inside Sam Houston, before it crosses over and tees out to run from Veterans Memorial southwest beyond 290 to Telge. The district stops at portions of the northern border of Jersey Village. The newly configured HD 148 has a D+7 history. But in a year where Harris County Republicans are working hard to stop ballot harvesting and to flip a sitting Dem County Judge during a crime wave, the seat is in striking distance if Kay Smith gets help.
Kay Smith is a native Houstonian who works as an administrator at US Pastor Council. She is a longtime Republican activist. I have yet to mention her name to Harris County conservatives as being in a flappable race that I have not gotten a response that they know and like Kay Smith.
Kay Smith is taking on a one term Dem incumbent named Penny Shaw. Shaw was ranked the eighteenth most liberal of the Texas House by Mark Jones of Rice University. That puts her in the bottom third of the Democrats. Shaw is an attorney who worked for a Dem County Commissioner before she took office. It has also been reported in a number of places that she has been a member of the Communist Party USA and has had their support.
Kay Smith emphasizes issues on her website. They are:
· Border & Security
· Fighting Crime and Funding the Police
· Bail Reform
· Eliminate Mask Mandates and Lockdowns
· Protecting Life
· Defending the 2nd Amendment
· Supporting Small Business
· Election Integrity

You can donate and volunteer to help Kay Smith at: texansforsmith.com
Click here for the Kay Smith for Texas House campaign Facebook page.
1 reaction Share

Michelle Lopez can Flip HD 45 in Hays County Red

Today’s featured Republican State Rep nominee who has the chance of replacing a Democrat in the 2022 general election is Michelle Lopez of Kyle in HD 45.  HD 45 covers the eastern half of Hays County and includes the cities of San Marcos, Kyle, Buda, Niederwald, and Uhland.  After redistricting, HD 45 is only D+5, making it theoretically one of the easiest current Dem districts to flip.

Michelle Lopez has served for three terms on the Kyle City Council, including service as Mayor Pro Tem and a long history of Hays County community involvement.  She has three degrees, including a bachelor’s from what used to be called Texas Women’s University, a master’s degree in education from Texas State, which is in HD 45, and a PhD in educational administration from Texas A&M University.  She runs a consulting company that focuses on executive and team coaching, personal branding and career development.

The Dem two-term incumbent in HD 45 is Erin Zweiner, who has posted about how much she admires Massachusetts U.S. Senator and abuser of affirmative action for Native Americans, Elizabeth Warren.

Michelle Lopez does not focus much on issues on her website or Facebook page, so I don’t know how committed she is to the RPT Legislative Priorities.  She is an active member of her Catholic Church and is married with one son, so she is presumably committed to traditional family values.  I know that she would be better on that score than Erin Zweiner!

You can donate and volunteer to help Michelle Lopez at:  https://www.lopezforhd45.com/

If Michelle has an active personal account on Facebook, I can’t find it.  She does have a Facebook campaign page.

This picture is of Michelle Lopez on our left, standing with State Senator Donna Campbell, whose SD 25 includes a small part of HD 45.  (The bulk of HD 45 is now in SD 21 currently being served by Dem Judith Zaffarini.  The active GOP challenger in SD 21 is Julie Dahlberg.)

1 reaction Share

Carolyn Vaughn can Flip HD 34 in Nueces County Red

Today’s featured Republican State Rep nominee who has the chance of replacing a Democrat in the 2022 general election is Carolyn Vaughn of Corpus Christi in HD 34 in west Nueces County.  HD 34 includes north and west Corpus Christi, and the cities of Robstown, Driscoll, and Bishop, as well as west rural and exurban Nueces County.  HD 34 has a D+5 history, making it a realistic potential flip in 2022.

Carolyn Vaughn has served both as Nueces County Commissioner and Corpus Christi City Council member.  Vaughn rose above the adversity of coming from a broken home with 8 kids and abusive father to helping her husband build a multi-million dollar oil services company called Vaughn Energy Services.  She had to drop out of high school in the 10th grade to help take care of her brother who had muscular dystrophy, but finished her GED and went to community college before getting married and going into business.  She and her husband have been married 50 years and have 3 children, 8 grandchildren, and on great granddaughter.

Carolyn Vaughn is taking on a 16 year Dem incumbent named Abel Herrero.  Herrero was ranked the fifth most eighteenth conservative Texas House Democrats by Mark Jones of Rice University, which still puts him more liberal than the most RINOcious of Republicans.  Herrero is an attorney who is also a Texas Aggie.   He was Robstown city councilman before he entered the Texas House.  He focuses primarily on bread and butter issues and civic promotion, but filed a ridiculous, anti-business bill last session to require retail stores to store knives for sale in locked cabinets.

Carolyn emphasizes on her website that in her previous roles she fought against tax increases, improved infrastructure, and was a strong supporter of law enforcement.  The issues she mentions on her website are:

  • Increase Education Funding
  • Support Small Business
  • Better Roads and Flood Mitigation
  • Expanding Healthcare through TeleHealth
  • Fight Transgender Curriculums in Schools
  • Protect Children at School

You can donate and volunteer to help Carolyn Vaughn at:  electcarolyn.com

Click here for her campaign Facebook page

1 reaction Share

Janie Lopez Can Flip HD 37 in Cameron County Red

Today’s featured Republican State Rep nominee who has the chance of replacing a Democrat in the 2022 general election is Janie Lopez of San Benito in the Rio Grande Valley in HD 37.  HD 37 was reconfigured during redistricting to include all of Willacy County.  It has less of Cameron County than it did, but still includes the bulk of the Cameron County in the east and north.  In Cameron County, HD 37 now includes Harlingen, northeastern Brownsville, Harlingen, north San Benito, South Padre Island, Port Isabel, Laguna Vista, Los Fresnos, and Rancho Viejo.  HD 37 is now the most flippable of all Dem-held districts classified with only a D+2 history.

Janie Lopez was born in Cameron County to two legal Mexican immigrants.  She was the first to graduate from college in her family.  Janie Lopez has served on the board of San Benito CISD. Her main career has been working as a mental healthcare professional treating at-risk children, and veterans and first responders suffering from PTSD.  She also has worked along the way in food service, manufacturing, retail.

This race is an open seat.  The Dem incumbent, Alex Dominguez, tried to become the Dem nominee in the Texas Senate District 27 being vacated by Eddie Lucio, but Dominguez did not even make it into the runoff in the Dem primary.  (SD 27, by the way is a Texas Senate seat that is potentially flippable.  Adam Hinojosa is the GOP nominee.)

The HD 37 Dem nominee, Luis Villareal, claims to have worked for State Senator Eddie Lucio in the past, but he was not high up in that large staff.  I have never met him.  He is now working in real estate.  If you look at his website, he projects an aura of youthful, vigorous authority focusing on bread and butter issues, and shying away from the radical Dem issues of late.

Janie Lopez’ issues section starts off with stopping transgender indoctrination.  The other issues are funding local infrastructure, improving mental health (her career specialty), fighting local corruption, supporting the Texas energy industry, standing with law enforcement, and fighting regulations that harm small, local businesses.

Janie Lopez has an impressive list of endorsements from her district.  Governor Abbott has also endorsed her on August 31.  She lists Texas Right to Life, Alliance for Life, Texans for Responsible Government, and the more business-focused establishment organizations, Texans for Lawsuit Reform, and Associated Republicans of Texas. 

One more topic of note in the HD 37 race is that the overlap between the dream team of three Hispanic Congressional nominees in South Texas who have flipped are working to flip the South Texas Congressional districts of Mayra Flores (CD 34), Monica De La Cruz (CD 15), and Cassy Garcia (CD 28).  Mayra Flores has already won the old, pre-redistricted CD 34 in a special election, and is now the first Mexican-born woman U.S. Representative.  HD 37 is wholly contained within the redistricted CD 34 where Mayra Flores is running for re-election.

Janie Lopez, Mayra Flores, Monica De La Cruz, and Cassy Garcia have the attention of the GOP establishment, Texas, and the nation where there are high expectations for their campaigns among conservatives.

You can donate and volunteer to help Janie Lopez at:  janielopez.com

Click here for her campaign Facebook page.

1 reaction Share

Dan Mathews Can Flip HD 76 in Fort Bend County Red

Today's Republican nominee for Texas House that has the potential to change a district from Dem to GOP in 2022 is Dan Mathews out of Sugar Land in Fort Bend County, HD 76.

HD 76 was moved from El Paso County to Fort Bend County during redistricting. The current occupant, Claudia Perez, is not running again because she obviously no longer lives in the district. HD 76 was designed to be a Democrat district with an advantage of +10 for Dems. The district is in NE Fort Bend County and includes north Sugar Land, a sliver of NW Stafford, Meadows Place and a good swath of unincorporated Fort Bend County. It is a very diverse district with a high percentage of naturalized citizens, many originally from Asia and Africa.

Dan Mathews spent most of his career working as a chemical engineer and in management in the oil business. He also is a licensed Texas Real Estate Broker. A native of India, he has spent his adulthood in Texas and is currently the pastor of a Christian church that is attended by a very diverse congregation.

I met Dan speaking in the past to Republican groups in Fort Bend County. He has been active politically for a good little while and is a conservative. (He won his three way primary without a runoff by extensive block walking, which he continued throughout the summer in preparation for the general election.

There are several interesting things about Dan's race. First, his opponent is a Muslim native of Pakistan. If his Dem opponent is elected, I think he would be the first Muslim in the Texas Legislature.

Dan tells me that his block walking is showing major weaknesses in the support for the Democratic Party and his Dem opponent in particular. Dan thinks that his hard work and the dissatisfaction in his district gives him a real shot at victory.

We need Dan Mathews in the Texas House.

You can donate and volunteer to help Dan at: https://www.texansfordan.com .  His campaign Facebook page is:  https://www.facebook.com/TexansforDanMathews

1 reaction Share

Michelle Evans Can Flip HD 136 in Williamson County Red

They say that Labor Day is the kickoff of the serious general election campaigning. This is the first in a series of posts, highlighting Republican State Rep nominees in swing districts that have a shot at putting a Republican in a seat currently occupied by a Democrat - IF we give them enough support and we get a red wave that we are expecting.

My first post is for Michelle Evans, who is running for HD 136 in South Williamson County against sophisticated incumbent Democrat, John Bucy. The cities in the district are south Cedar Park, west Round Rock, and the Williamson County portion of Austin. (Her district is classified as +8% for Dems, but that is within striking distance during this cycle.)

I would classify Michelle as the new generation of mama bears. She is not new to advocacy, having been involved in Texans for Vaccine Choice at the state capitol for a number of sessions. She has also joined the hand-to-hand warfare over protection of children in Round Rock and Leander ISDs.

She is a sophisticated, able advocate for the legislative priorities of the RPT and would be a WONDERFUL addition to the Texas House. (I say this even if she is a UT grad and I am an Aggie! )

I urge you to go to https://www.michelleevansfortexas.com or her campaign Facebook page to donate and volunteer for her campaign.

1 reaction Share

Prospects for Grassroots Progress in 2023 Texas House

The main seasons in Texas politics are primary season, general election season, and legislative season.  We are now at the end of primary season, so with those results we can now get better views of the battlegrounds in election season and indicators of how the 88th Texas Legislature will line out.

I am writing this analysis from the perspective of one who wants to advance constitutional, limited government and conservative values in the Texas legislature, to protect Texans from the globalists and Marxists who have captured DC and other institutions, and to implement the legislative priorities of the Republican Party of Texas (RPT).

I started primary season with this question:  “What can we do to change the culture of the Texas House to be more beholden to the priorities, principles, and platform of the RPT and the voters of their district and less beholden to the Austin Swamp and the Democrats?”  In other words, I recognized that there is an eternal war between the establishment / special interests / cronies / swamp and the grassroots and wanted to tilt the balance in that war to the grassroots.

My answer was that to the degree possible, we in the grassroots should replace as many of the worst of the establishment-controlled legislators as possible.  In the 2022 electoral cycle we were presented with opportunities that do not come along very often.  First, larger numbers of House members are leaving the body, including some longtime stalwarts for the establishment, creating a larger freshman class in the next legislative session than normal.  Redistricting added to that shakeup, forcing incumbents into partially new districts.  Second, the national zeitgeist is definitely blowing in a Republican direction, meaning a number of Texas House seats currently occupied by Democrats are in play in the general election.

So this article will focus on two main areas – 1) how will the Republican turnover tilt the balance between the Austin swamp and the grassroots?   2)  how many current Democrat House seats have the potential to flip Republican in the general election in 2022?

Republican Turnover Impact on Grassroots – Establishment Balance

If a red surge does not flip marginal Dem seats to Republican in November (the possibilities of which are discussed below) there will be a net three additional Texas House seats occupied at the beginning of the 88th Legislature compared to the 87th for a total of 88 Republicans.  Two of the flips to Republican occurred before primary season.  Two other seats were solidly redistricted D to R, but a step backward from R to D happened to take out grassroots champion Jeff Cason.

I will do my evaluation on the basis of the sixteen 87th Legislature Republicans that are not returning to the 88th.  Classification of whose team a Rep is on is a tricky, but important business.  I use my own metrics in that assessment.  I will let you do your own.  But figuring out where a legislator is on the sliding scale of establishment champion to grassroots champion is important in changing the culture of the Texas House.

Five of the House members that will not be returning this session were active, powerful, committed servants of the establishment.  I would count three who we have lost as liberty champions.  And another three that were usually there for the grassroots.  The other five were followers who usually did whatever leadership told them to.

How did we do in holding our own with champions and grassroots leaning nominees?  I will count the two Republicans who had flipped the seat to Dem in with this analysis, meaning that I am analyzing 19 Republicans new to the Texas House in the 88th Legislature in 2023.   Recognize that many freshman arrive intending to do the right thing, but the swamp goes to work on them immediately, telling them that they have to ignore the voters who voted for them and the party on whose ballot they ran and play ball with the swamp if they want to accomplish anything or be anybody.  My estimate is that we replaced the three champions with three more.  And we are starting with eight who lean grassroots, producing a net gain of five grassroots-leaning House members.

And how did the establishment do in replacing their team?  By my estimates, they won with three that are virtually guaranteed to be top establishment water carriers, for a net loss of two.  And they replaced their establishment leaning contingent exactly.

Here is a chart summarizing my overall analysis:

Analysis of Changes to Texas House Between 87th and 88th Legislature - Assume no flips of Dem seats to GOP in General

 

(Analysis and Classification only of Republicans leaving and arriving)

     

 

                     

Classification

Leaving 87th

Starting 88th

Net

 

Total 87th R

Total 88th R

Net

% Total

% Sides

 

Grassroots Champions

3

3

0

 

9

9

0

10.5%

42%

Grassroots

Leaning Grassroots

3

8

5

 

22

27

5

31.4%

   

Leaning Establishment

5

5

0

 

34

34

0

39.5%

58%

Establishment

Establishment Stalwarts

5

3

-2

 

18

16

-2

18.6%

   
                     

Total

16

19

3

 

83

86

3

     
                           

My conclusion of this analysis is that there is a low likelihood of a change in the establishment-dominated culture of the Texas House in the 88th Legislature.  I suspect there is almost no chance of even a challenge to the current Speaker, and an even lower chance that a challenge would prevail.

It is possible, but not probable, that Speaker Phelan will comply with 2022 GOP Primary Proposition 6 which called for ending of the awarding of chairmanships to Democrats that 81% of the GOP primary voters called for – not because Phelan fears the GOP primary electorate – but because he does not feel the need to form a coalition with the Dems to retain the job.

Phelan faced the terrible math problem last session where there appeared to be enough Republicans who were willing to repeat the Straus strategy of taking a few betraying Republicans to team with the Dems to produce a speakership.  The formula is the delta between D’s and the 76 majority needed to gain the speakership vs. the number of Republican betrayers.  Last session there was only 9 member gap and there appeared to be more betrayers than that to Phelan and his team.  But this session there will be at least a 12 member gap and I can identify only six betrayers that might try the old Straus gambit.

Speaker Phelan may be feeling burned by the way the Dems treated him and the Republicans last session.  I bet he remembers the three grueling special sessions made necessary in large part because of the use of every tool – including a walkout - the Dems possessed to try to stymie conservative bills they opposed.

This does not mean all is lost for conservative causes or the RPT Legislative Priorities that will come out of the upcoming state convention.  We learned from the constitutional carry issue that an organized, concerted push on a conservative priority can break through establishment opposition.  And it is my assessment that despite the culture not changing much, because of the freshmen who have not yet been seduced to the dark side, this Texas House is still more primed to pass conservative priorities than we have seen in a long time.

The Upside – What Are the Prospects for Bigger Republican Majorities in the Texas House in 2023?

With the one exception of HD 70 in Collin County, the configuration of the districts after redistricting make it highly likely that the numbers presented will be the results in the general election.  The GOP nominee in HD 70, Jamee Jolly, has the most contested of those races with an open, redistricted seat that is actually considered to be tilting toward Democrats by 1 percentage point.

But given the abysmal performance of the Dems who captured DC in 2020, there is likely to be a red wave in the 2022 general election that reverses a lot of recent past movement toward the Dems in Texas.

There are nine seats besides HD 70 that after redistricting lean Democrat given recent past performance, but have the potential to flip from Democrat to Republican during a strong red wave.  If we get our election integrity ducks in a row, that can help in these districts, too.

Here is a table about those nine seats:

Distr

Incumbent

2021 Occupant

2022 Dem Nominee

2022 GOP Nominee

Counties

New Distr PVI

37

Open

Alex Dominguez

Luis Villarreal Jr

Janie Lopez

Cameron (E), Willacy

D+2

41

Bobby Guerra

Bobby Guerra

Bobby Guerra

John (Doc) Robert Guerra

Hidalgo (SC)

D+8

45

Erin Zweiner

Erin Zweiner

Erin Zweiner

Michelle M. Lopez

Hays (E)

D+5

74

Eddie Morales

Eddie Morales

Eddie Morales

Katherine Parker

Maverick, Kinney, Val Verde, Terrell, Brewster, Presidio, Jeff Davis, Reeves, Hudspeth, Culberson,  El Paso (NE)

D+6

76

Open

Claudia Ordaz Perez

Suleman Lalani

Dan Mathews

Fort Bend (N Central, including N Sugar Land and Mission Bend)

D+10

105

Terry Meza

Terry Meza

Terry Meza

Allan Meagher

Dallas (W -  S Irving)

D+8

115

Julie Johnson

Julie Johnson

Julie Johnson

Melisa Denis

Dallas (NW - includes E Farmers Branch, Addison, S Carrollton, Coppell, N Irving, Northlake)

D+5

136

John Bucy

John Bucy

John Bucy

Michelle Evans

Williamson (SW)

D+8

148

Penny Shaw

Penny Shaw

Penny Shaw

Kay Smith

Harris (near NW)

D+7

 

Funding, of course, will be needed for the GOP challengers in these races.  It appears that school board trustee Janie Lopez (HD 37 – San Benito), Katherine Parker (HD 74 – Alpine), Melisa Denis (HD 115 – Coppell), Kay Smith (HD 148 – Houston), and maybe Michelle Evans (HD 136 – Round Rock) have the best chances of raising the money needed to prevail.

Republicans in general and the grassroots needs to do a lot more research on these races determine how we can support the best of those who have stepped up in this fight.  Sadly, there were some districts which had just as good demographics or better than these, but no GOP challenger emerged.

Tom Glass lives in Lee County, Texas.  He was a Republican Candidate for Texas House District 17, is on the RPT Platform Committee from SD 18, the head of Texas Legislative Priorities, and Texas Constitutional Enforcement.  He spends lots of his time focused on persuading the Texas legislature to pass strategic liberty-oriented legislation.

1 reaction Share