Pre-Game Analysis of Texas Speaker Race

As I write this on Sunday evening, Jan 12, it is less than two days until the vote on the Texas House speaker race on the first day of the Texas Legislature on Tuesday, Jan 14. At this moment, the outcome of this most fascinating and consequential race is not known.

Before I get into the possible ways the speaker race will turn out, let’s bring us up to date on big events that have occurred since right after Christmas, the last big summary I wrote on the race:

  • One more Democrat, Richard Raymond of Laredo, has said that he should not be on the Burrows list, and has actually committed to Cook. This leaves Burrows with 36 Democrats he says are with him and only 30 Republicans that have not in some way indicated that they are not on Burrows list. Two Republicans (Jeff Barry and Janie Lopez are on both Burrows’ and Cook’s list without to-my-knowledge clarifying publicly which way they plan to vote.)
  • Reports on X and elsewhere have been highlighting that current speaker Dade Phelan, wannabe speaker Dustin Burrows, and the Bonnen brothers (Dennis – former speaker and Greg - current Appropriations Chair) are owners with the big World Economic Forum implementers of their globalist hostility to the oil & gas industry, Blackrock and Vanguard, of Third Coast Bank. And that State Rep Cody Harris is their employee at the bank.
  • The Third Coast Bank connection was publicized after Cody Harris of HD 8 in East Texas filed a criminal complaint for bribery against Republican Party of Texas Chair Abraham George. Harris’ ridiculous claim is that by using party resources to publicize the party’s opposition to a minority of Republicans aligning with a majority of Democrats to select a speaker and giving notice of potential censure for such is a criminal offense. So we now know that the employee of a globalist controlled bank and Dustin Burrows and Dade Phelan wants to put the Republican Party of Texas Chair in jail for opposing them. I posted about how such abusive lawfare violates our rights to petition for redress of grievances, free speech, and the bedrock principle of our representative republic that all power is inherent in the people here.
  • Many more Republican county organizations have issued resolutions urging their representatives to unite with the majority of their fellow Republican party members and party to vote for the Texas House Republican Caucus. The resolutions are tracking the language of the State Republican Executive Committee resolution that warns that a vote against the caucus choice or a vote for secret ballot in the speaker race will be considered a censurable act. More than half of the GOP county chairs (and all of the most populous counties) have also signed onto a similar letter from Tarrant County chair, Bo French.
  • Social media posts from Lubbock’s State Rep Carl Tepper were so disrespectful, not only of the Republican Party, but of the voters and the governor and lieutenant governor, that Dan Patrick issued two scathing replies to Tepper on X.
  • Republican Party primary voters have been receiving a deluge of texts from PACs on both sides of the race and from the RPT on the Cook side. I detailed in one piece about how a text from HD 17 Stan Gerdes was filled with misrepresentations. The most frequent tactic of the Burrows supporters is to deflect from their betrayal of fellow Republicans and the party. Rather, they try to make a failed case that Burrows is more conservative than Cook, despite independent ranking by Rice University that shows Cook far more conservative than Burrows. In fact, if you average the Rice ranking of the Cook team versus the average of the Burrows team, where 1 is the most conservative, and 85 is the least, the average ranking of the Cook team (28 out of 85) is far more conservative than the Burrows team (47 out of 85).
  • In another embarrassing statistic showing that the hypocrisy of the Burrows team on false messaging about the relative conservative credentials of Burrows, Grassroots America has done some analysis that shows nine of the Burrows team that voted more often with Cook during the last session than they did with Burrrows! That includes members Carl Tepper, Jared Patterson, Cole Hefner, Terry Wilson, Will Metcalf, Stan Gerdes, Gio Capriglione, Lacey Hull, and Jay Dean.
  • Attorney General Ken Paxton and Abraham George went on a Republican Accountability Tour to four venues in two days, each seeing overflow crowds. Some paraphrased quotes: Ken Paxton: "We want Republican reps to vote with fellow Republicans to vote with the Republican caucus and Republican Party to deliver Republican results in the Legislature." Abraham George: "Is that too much to ask of a Republican representative?"
  • Since this is the hottest speaker race in Texas history, it has received so much coverage, not only in Texas, but nationally, that I cannot keep up with it. Back during the scandal in 2019 which brought down Dennis Bonnen and caused Dustin Burrows to resign as the Republican House Caucus presidency, then Texas Tribune columnist said, “Former House Speaker Pete Laney once told a reporter that speakers are usually in political trouble if more than 10% of the voters can name them.” Phelan certainly passed that threshold with GOP primary voters. Burrows has now, as well.

One thing is for sure, the BurrowCrat betrayers have put the decision for who the next speaker will be into the hands of the Democrats. Neither the reformer/caucus choice group, nor the betrayer group has enough pledged support Democrat and Republican to get the majority of 76 needed if all members vote.

Currently, Burrows claims support from 36 Democrats and one Democrat has pledged to Cook. That leaves 25 Democrats undeclared between the two Republicans if the process reaches a two-way race between the Republican caucus choice, Cook, and Burrows. Those 25 can go with Cook, Burrows, or vote present not voting. The 36 Democrats that Burrows put on his list might continue to bleed for Burrows, either going to Cook or to a present-not-voting stance.

I do not have enough insight into how the Democrats will act. It is not just the Republicans that are playing the speaker race differently than last time. It is the Democrats, who have historically voted in lock-step, who are acting differently this time, as well.

Regardless of how the race turns out on Tuesday (and by the way, I have heard one member predict that the race may not be concluded on Tuesday, but continue on for another day or more), the culture of both the Texas House and the interaction between the Republican Party of Texas has changed. Despite the intensity of the wishes of the establishment-serving Republicans, that is not going to change back.

Even if Burrows or some other Uniparty speaker wins, conservatives will no longer be sidelined and denigrated by the Uniparty. Warfare between the reformers and the betrayer Republicans will continue throughout the session and then the 2026 primaries are likely to end many a career of establishment Republican.

A voter and member driven Texas House is coming. The only question is whether it comes this session on Tuesday, or after a mopping up action in 2026.