Flippable Texas House Seats in 2024

The political winds are swirling around in 2024. For several reasons, I plan to focus until November 5, 2024 on Texas House seats that can possibly flip from Democrat today to Republican.

During my GOP primary campaign for Texas House, I said that the weak link in defending against the war on Texas by the feds and globalists is the swamp-controlled Texas House. The total number of elected Texas House Republicans is an important variable in the Speaker race which will determine whether the grip of the Austin swamp on the Texas House can be broken.

I call it Speaker Math. The question is how many Republican Betrayers does it take to join with Democrats to put in a swampy, Uniparty Speaker?  The formula is B (Betrayers needed) = R (total Republicans in the Texas House) – 74.

Currently, there are 86 Republicans in the Texas House.  So, the GOP Betrayers needed is 12.  (Joe Straus and Charlie Geren only needed 11 Betrayers in 2009 to start Uniparty control hostile to conservatives.)  If we flip a net two seats to Republican in November, R will be 88, and Betrayers needed is 14.  Every extra flip makes it harder for the Uniparty to keep power in the next legislative session.  (If the 46 Republican House candidates that have signed the letter to pick a Speaker in the Republican Caucus and vote against candidates who pledge to name Dem chairs stand firm, the Republican Dem-lovers will be forced to cast a record vote of their betrayal on the House floor in January.)

Given that the Dems favor mutilating and sterilizing children to enable their delusions, almost every Democrat refused to vote for a constitutional amendment to require citizenship to vote, and most Dems are soft on the crime that is devastating the voters in their districts, there is plenty of motivation for me to focus on flipping as many Texas House seats red as we can.

So what prospects are there for flipping seats in 2024?

I start with looking at the votes in the 2022 general election for Governor Abbott versus Beto to get a percentage vote.  I looked only at races where there is a Republican challenger in a district currently occupied by a Democrat.  In those races, there is not a single Libertarian candidate this cycle. The Green Party does not list its 2024 nominees for Texas House on its website. I doubt there is a Green Party candidate in these races, either, but conventional wisdom says that if so, it would likely pull votes away from the Dem.

Note that there were Libertarian and Green candidates in the 2022 gubernatorial race.  I made the simplifying assumption that Libertarian governor voters would more likely vote Republican for Texas House and Green governor voters would more likely vote Democrat.  So, the number of R – D  I am using for likely flip-ability in the 2022 governor race in the district is R+L-D-G. (I included the Abbott and Beto percentage vote in the district for a different perspective.)

I also showed in several ways whether the seat is open or whether the GOP candidate is challenging an incumbent. Normally, open seats are more likely to flip than those held by incumbents.

Remember, the percentage of people that have to vote differently this time compared to 2022 for a flip to happen is half the R – D value.  For example, if the vote was 53% D to 47% R last time for an R – D of -6%, just over 3% need to switch to flip the seat. Here is the list in order of “R – D” from highest to lowest:

I doubt that the anything lower on the list will flip.  In fact, even the bottom of the list above is unlikely to flip.  But for completeness, I include all other currently held Democrat seats with Republican challengers:

A more in-depth analysis is needed of each race.

When I look at the top nine GOP candidates on the list, it is very impressive.  Don McLaughlin is a businessman and former mayor of Uvalde. Robert Garza is an attorney with a lifetime of public service including being mayor of Del Rio. Denise Villalobos is a former school board member.  Steve Kinard is successful oil and gas financier with a strong interest in grid security and blockchain technology.  Doc Guerra is an OB/GYN doctor in the valley who has the experience of running the same race in 2022.  Rose Cannaday has served on the Irving City Council.  John Jun, an immigrant from South Korea, is an attorney with an impressive record of community service including Coppell city council and getting an education while supporting a family. Kay Smith is a universally admired longtime Harris County conservative activist. And Stephen Stanley has had a real estate career and served on the city councils of both Sachse and Garland.

Each of us should be looking to see what we can do to help the top twelve or so which are in our area of operation. I hope to be writing more about these important races as we progress.